2022 Stanley Cup Final: Lightning vs. Avalanche odds, NHL picks, Game 6 prediction from proven hockey model

The three-peat is still on the table as the Tampa Bay Lightning staved off elimination in Game 5 on Friday. Now the 2022 Stanley Cup Final returns to Amalie Arena as Tampa Bay look to even the series against the Colorado Avalanche in Game 6 on Sunday. The Lightning got the game-winning goal in Game 5 from Ondrej Palat at 13:38 in the third period, triumphing as substantial road underdogs to stay alive.

Opening faceoff in Game 6 is set for 8 p.m. ET in Tampa. Caesars Sportsbook lists Colorado as the slight -115 favorite (risk $115 to win $100) in the latest Lightning vs. Avalanche odds. The over-under for total goals is set at six, the same it has been for the first five games in the series. Before making any Avalanche vs. Lightning picks, check out the NHL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates each NHL game 10,000 times. It enters the second week of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final on a 23-18 run on its top-rated NHL side picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has its sights on Avs vs. Lightning. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NHL odds and betting trends for Lightning vs. Avs: 

  • Lightning vs. Avalanche money line: Avalanche -115, Lightning -105
  • Lightning vs. Avalanche over-under: 6 goals
  • Lightning vs. Avalanche puck line: Avalanche -1.5 (+205)
  • Lightning vs. Avalanche tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • TB: The total has gone under in 12 of Tampa Bay’s last 16 games
  • COL: The Avalanche have won eight of their last nine road games

Featured Game | Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche

Why the Avalanche can win

Colorado was pushed to six games in the Western Conference semifinals against the Blues and responded with a Game 6 road victory in that spot. The Avs will look to do it again on Sunday with the Stanley Cup in the building, and their overall body of work in the playoffs is impressive. They’ve lost just four total games in the postseason this year, and with an 8-1 road mark in the playoffs, they should have all the confidence needed to finish the series off.

The Avs boast perhaps the deepest roster in the league, and that depth has been on display during the postseason. Eight players have at least 13 points in the playoffs, with defenseman Cale Makar (29) leading the way. Wing Mikko Rantanen is second with 25, while center Nathan MacKinnon (22 points) leads the way in goals scored (12) and total shots (110).

Why the Lightning can win

Tampa Bay has shown impressive fight despite being behind at every stage in the series and have overcome a 3-2 deficit already this postseason. The Lightning came from behind to win their first-round series against the Maple Leafs and also faced a 2-0 series deficit to the Rangers in the Eastern Conference Finals before winning the last four games to advance.

The two-time defending Stanley Cup champions have shown plenty of resilience and an experienced group is a big reason why. Captain Steven Stamkos has 10 goals and eight assists in 22 postseason games while Nikita Kucherov’s 27 points so far in the playoffs leads the team. Veterans Victor Hedman (19 points), Palat (20 points) and Corey Perry (11 points) have also made major contributions.

How to make Lightning vs. Avalanche picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, as the simulations have the teams combining for 6.5 goals. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Lightning vs. Avalanche in Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Avalanche vs. Lightning money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times.

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